City Fiscal Conditions 2019

Survey results and fiscal data from more than five hundred cities suggest an economic downturn may be in the offing, the 2019 edition of an annual report from the National League of Cities finds. According to City Fiscal Conditions 2019 (17 pages, PDF), the annual growth rate of spending by cities in the sample outpaced the rate of growth of their general fund revenues, which according to the study have fallen to their lowest levels since 2013. The study also found that for the first time in seven years cities anticipate a decline in revenue for fiscal year 2019. Cities in the Midwest were the most affected, with overall general fund revenues for those cities down 4.4 percent and tax receipts showing early signs of weakening. In addition, nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of finance officers in large cities (population of at least three hundred thousand) and 49 percent of those in midsize cities (population of between a hundred thousand and three hundred thousand) expect a recession to hit in 2020 or 2021. At the same time, the survey also found that 88 percent of large-city finance officers and 76 percent of finance officers in all cities said their cities' ability to meet community needs had improved on a year-over-year basis.