The U.S. nonprofit sector shed 7.4 percent of its workforce in the twelve months after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data by the Johns Hopkins Center for Civil Society Studies finds.

According to BLS data, the sector as of February had lost an estimated 926,045 jobs since February 2020, with the arts and entertainment subsector hardest hit, shedding nearly 35 percent of its jobs, followed by educational services (14.6 percent); religious, grantmaking, and civic associations (10 percent); social services (7.5 percent); and healthcare services (nearly 4 percent). The analysis also found that the sector gained only 26,562 jobs in February over January's levels, an increase of 2.8 percent, continuing a four-month trend of slow recovery. After a robust snapback in June, when the sector regained nearly 25 percent of the initial 1.64 million jobs it shed in the spring, the percentage of jobs recovered fell sharply through the summer and fall, to 1.4 percent in November and -3 percent in December, and remained low in January (0.5 percent) and February (1.6 percent).

Based on an average of 39,520 jobs recovered per month, the center estimates it will take 23.4 months, or nearly two years, for the nonprofit employment to return to pre-COVID levels. While that represents an overall improvement from an estimate of 2.4 years based on December's BLS data, projections vary widely by subsector, from 9.7 months for social assistance to 26.4 months for arts, entertainment, and recreation.