After two consecutive months of robust gains, the recovery of nonprofit sector jobs slowed in August, an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data by the Johns Hopkins Center for Civil Society Studies finds.

The impact of COVID-19's delta variant was apparent in the August data, which showed a month-over-month increase of just forty-two thousand nonprofit sector jobs, or 6.9 percent of the jobs still lost as of July. According to the analysis, the majority of job gains was in the educational field, which added an estimated 28,518 jobs, or 18.2 percent of the jobs still lost, ahead of the new school year; religious, grantmaking, civic, professional, and similar organizations added 5,140 jobs, or 13.7 percent; and arts, entertainment, and recreational organizations added 5,509 jobs, or 8.2 percent. Employment in the social assistance field, meanwhile, remained largely stagnant, adding just 123 jobs in August, or 0.2 percent of jobs still lost as of July, while healthcare organizations lost 2,129 jobs, or 1 percent.

The analysis also estimates that 65.2 percent of the 1.64 million nonprofit-sector jobs estimated to have been lost during the first three months of the pandemic had been recovered as of the end of August, but the rate of recovery has slowed — from 4.5 percent of jobs recovered in June and 4.2 percent in July to 2.6 percent in August. The nonprofit workforce remained 564,763 jobs, or 4.5 percent, below pre-pandemic levels. Unrecovered jobs include 17.4 percent of jobs lost in arts and entertainment; 6.4 percent of those in education; 4.9 percent of those in social services; 3.9 percent of those with religious, grantmaking, and civic associations; and 3.3 percent of those in health care.

Based on average rates of job recovery from January through August 2021, the center estimates that it will take the sector another 11.4 months to return to pre-pandemic levels, down from 12.4 months in the July projection. The social assistance field is expected to take the longest, at 13 months, followed by arts, entertainment, and recreational organizations (7.8 months), educational services (4.8 months), and religious, grantmaking, civic, professional associations (4.5 months). Nonprofit healthcare jobs have seen so little growth since January, however, that no reliable estimate could be projected.

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